Frailty and long-term fasting glucose variability in incident type 2 diabetes
In a retrospective cohort of 71,849 Chinese adults aged 65 or older without diabetes at baseline, higher long-term fasting glucose variability was associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk, and frailty modified this association. [1]
Automatic summary · not editorially reviewed
The key findings
The retrospective cohort included 71,849 Chinese adults aged 65 or older without diabetes at baseline, with frailty assessed by an electronic Frailty Index from health records. [1]
During a median follow-up of 3.15 years, 4,635 participants developed type 2 diabetes. [1]
Frailty modified the association: each standard deviation increase in fasting glucose standard deviation was linked to a 24% higher risk in non-frail and a 13% higher risk in frail participants. [1]
The source at a glance
- Study type / format
- Population-based retrospective cohort study (abstract)
- Population / context
- 71,849 Chinese adults aged 65 or older without diabetes at baseline
- Summary based on
- Study abstract
- Publication status
- Preprint · peer-review status not confirmed
- Original publication
- September 15, 2026
Older Chinese cohort without diabetes at baseline
The abstract describes a population-based retrospective cohort of 71,849 Chinese adults aged 65 or older who had no diabetes at baseline. Frailty was assessed with an electronic Frailty Index built from routinely collected electronic health records. Long-term fasting plasma glucose variability was measured from three serial health examinations using three measures: standard deviation, coefficient of variation and variability independent of the mean. Incident type 2 diabetes was identified through electronic health records during follow-up.
Supporting source [1]
Higher variability linked to more incident diabetes
During a median follow-up of 3.15 years, 4,635 participants developed type 2 diabetes. Higher long-term fasting glucose variability was independently associated with increased diabetes risk. Frailty significantly modified this association: each standard deviation increase in fasting glucose standard deviation was associated with a 24% higher risk among non-frail participants (hazard ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.21–1.27), compared with a 13% higher risk among frail participants (hazard ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.02–1.25). Similar patterns were reported for the other two variability measures. These are associations, not proof of cause.
Supporting source [1]
Abstract-only scope and suggested risk stratification
The authors conclude that frailty substantially influences the predictive value of long-term glucose variability for incident type 2 diabetes in older adults. They suggest incorporating frailty into glycaemic risk stratification and a more individualized approach to diabetes prevention in ageing populations. These are suggestions, not validated tools or proven prevention strategies. Only the abstract was reviewed; the full text was not reviewed, so details of modelling, confounder adjustment and follow-up are not available here.
Supporting source [1]
How to interpret this
Abstract only; the full text was not reviewed. This is an observational retrospective cohort, so the reported associations do not establish causation. Details of confounder adjustment and follow-up are not available here.
Based on the study abstract; the full paper, tables and supplementary data were not reviewed.
Source & supporting passages
pan Y, ZHONG L, Zhang J, Li Y, Zhou K, Shao J. · europepmc.org · September 15, 2026